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Betting systems per se are not a guaranteed way of making a profit from gambling, though they can help punters along who already have a reasonable knowledge. Systems, contrary to popular belief, are not a way of choosing the selection in the first place but more a way of managing money.
To use a football betting system, the punter will need to trust their own knowledge in choosing a selection in the first place. To help you get the best value for a bet, remember to enter a palmerbet sign up bonus or another promotional code before you place a bet. From there, rather than throw a random amount of money at the bet, a rigid system will essentially instruct the punter how much to place and when to quit.
Here we look at three of the best football betting systems which have been known to, at the very least, help football punters to organise their bets a little better:
Back And Lay
This is a strategy all about minimising the punter’s risk and getting the best value for money. A lot of this strategy is about your own football knowledge and instinct, rather than science, as you will need to spot teams you believe have been given a bigger price than they should.
Having found what you believe is a value bet, for example Newcastle to beat Everton and have backed them to win, you may then lay the draw on the betting exchange at odds of more than 4.0. Should your team go on to score the first goal early enough in the game, then you can cash out for certain profit.
An alternative way of using this system is to hedge your bet by backing the draw. Should the favourite score first, the bookmaker’s odds for the draw will go up. Backing the draw now at the new price with an amount that will cover your liabilities will result in guaranteed profit.
The Kelly Criterion
This is a system used by professionals and has proven to be one of the most effective and profitable systems for football punters. The Kelly Criterion is basically a money management betting system, setting out the ideal bet size based on the value offered. Money management is about optimising the potential for winning at the expense of excess risk and this system aims to find the optimum amount a punter should bet in order to meet the conditions.
The basic formula runs like this; (bankroll) BR% = (P*B) – 1 / odds – 1, letting P be the probability of the punter winning (in decimal format), B the price offered and BR% being the percent of the bankroll we should stake as per the system.
After applying the formula to the data, the punter gets a positive number for BR% that shows how much of the bankroll to bet with. If the number is negative, simply don’t place a bet. For example, if odds of 10/11 are offered that Chelsea will beat Man United and it’s estimated that Chelsea have a 55% chance of winning the game, then the Kelly Criterion would suggest the following; BR% = (0.55*1.91) – 1 / (1.91 – 1). The formula will then suggest that the punter should bet 5.5495% of the bankroll on this bet.
The Labouchere System
The Labouchere System is based on mathematical principles and can used for even money bets. To use the system accurately, the punter first needs to decide how many units you want to win. For instance, should you wish to make a £100 profit, this would need to be broken down to units (for example, £10). Once a definition of how much a punter wants to win is finalised, they then note this down in a linear form; 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 (10 total units of £10 equates to £100 in profit).
By using this line of numbers, the gambler then takes the furthest left number and the furthest right number, adding them together to form the amount they need to bet on a single match. If this bet wins, the punter can cross-off both numbers. If the bet were to lose the gambler then places the sum of the two numbers on the right-hand side of the number line.
Aiming to make a £100 profit with £10 bets, we get the following:
• Starting with: 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.
• Then betting two units and winning, cross off the ‘1’ on both the left and right, leaving 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.
• Then betting another two units but losing, add a ‘2’ to the right, leaving 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2.
• Then betting three units (1+2) and losing again, add a ‘3’ to the right, leaving 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3.
• Then betting four units (1+3) and winning, cross off the ‘1’ on the left and the ‘3’ on the right, leaving 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2.
Winning and losing will naturally have an impact on the bankroll and if the punter can’t cover a bet, then one of the following two processes must be adhered to:
• If the number on the left-hand side can be covered, then the punter must risk that amount. If the wager wins then the punter should cross off that number. Conversely, the bet losing means that the punter adds that number to the right-hand side of the line.
• If no bet can be covered, punters then bet what they can and if winning, subtract that amount from number on the left. Ultimately, if this bet is lost, the game must be quit.
Although this system makes certain concessions for various bankrolls, the Labouchere is still one that can be very costly if results don’t the right way. The maths behind the system definitely hold up, however if the bankroll isn’t robust enough then this isn’t a football betting strategy that should tried. Overall though, this has helped football punters to make their betting more organised and professional.